UKRAINE, EUROPE AND SECURITY

Abstract

The task of projecting the power distribution in Europe and Northeast Asia by 2020 was quite challenging in 2001 when the book called “Tragedy of great power politics” was published by Mearsheimer. The author claimed that the process involved two interconnected tasks: 1) calculating the power levels of the major players in each region, with particular attention to the presence of a potential hegemon; and 2) estimating the likelihood that the United States would continue to be militarily involved in those areas, which was primarily dependent on the existence of a potential hegemon among the local great powers that can only be contained with American assistance. For instance, it was difficult to predict how strong the economies of China and Russia would be in 2020, or if China would continue to exist as a single nation or disintegrate like the Soviet Union did. (Mearsheimer 2001)